Hurricane Erin is spinning in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, soon to be renamed the American Ocean, before it is realized that the Pacific Ocean is bigger, then its name will be changed to American Ocean II, with the Pacific Ocean being renamed the American Ocean I.

There’s a nice satellite loop of Hurricane Erin at the end of this short piece.

There are surge warnings in the Carolinas, the maximum now predicted is 2-4 feet. But Erin is headed safely away from the coast as I write.

A somewhat different track for a storm like this could bring a storm surge right up the Chesapeake and tributaries, like the Potomac.

If that happened they actually would have to drain the swamp.

Hurricane Erin formed quickly in the eastern Atlantic as a tropical wave came off of the African Continent, which has now moved west over Florida and the Gulf Coast. In Texas, at least near the Gulf, we now have very tropical weather, with heat indices peaking around 110 F. The air here has been very unstable, with thunderstorms popping off at some point every day. I was hit in the head by a quarter sized hail stone two days ago. They can indeed hurt.

The internet tells me that three people are known to have been killed by hailstones in history. Seems dubious at first glance, but I like this bit of internet knowledge because all three were killed in the State of Texas. That sort of makes it believable.

Now it’s a sunny if breezy day at Myrtle Beach, SC.

https://earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd#google_vignette

The waves look a little sloppy but offshore and surfable.

But no one’s out, the beaches are closed.

The worst impacts, expected mostly from 15 to 20 foot waves, are farther north especially on the NC outer banks. Lots of sand is going to be moved around.

Here’s the predicted Hurricane Erin wind field.

That’s a big wind field. 🙂

In other climateweather news, the American West remains dry. I’m happy I went to the mountains early this year, and caught the tail end of the snow before a very dry summer. I hope my marmot friends will be ok. This is an ongoing issue, and one of the more dramatic short-term changes interpreted as resulting from human caused climate change.

That’s the current situation, which I would have to judge as consistent with the picture of drying described in the GRACE/GRACE-FO analysis paper. Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise. The margin of drought areas has been beaten back a bit, but for most of the mountain west, I am going to have to recommend moving east and north, eventually. Alberta is the future.

As promised =>